中美房地产土地杠杆研究

本文通过引入可反映地价与房价间比例关系的土地杠杆假设,把土地杠杆值作为研究影响房价变动的显著性因素来考虑;认为房价对市场冲击做出反应的程度正相关于土地杠杆大小,高土地杠杆地区面对同样的经济冲击做出反应的程度也大。通过研究中美两国的房地产土地杠杆情况,分析其历史变动趋势和区域差异,发现两国土地杠杆值均呈现随时间不断上涨的态势;与美国情况相比,我国整体上土地杠杆值不高,但在一些大城市如上海,土地杠杆值很高且涨幅显著,需要引起重视。     

论阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》两个版本系统

阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》对十三经注疏作了一次较为全面系统的正本清源工作,故阮刻《十三经注疏》成为诸本中较善之册。追溯阮元《十三经注疏校勘记》的成书过程,辨述版本流变,考证阮校实有两个版本系统：一是嘉庆十三年文选楼单刻本,一是嘉庆二十一年南昌府学合刻本。两本相校,互有异同。现流传较广的中华书局本《十三经注疏校勘记》的底本是南昌府学本,有待于参用文选楼本重加整理。     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

浅议房地产"泡沫"及对策

房地产经济是国民经济的重要组成部分，不仅带动和影响着国民经济中的众多产业，也对国家经济建设起着举足轻重的作用。近年来房地产业一直是拉动中国经济的动力之一，但随着地方投资的升温，挤占耕地和房价高涨，尖利的警报声在中国地产的上空不断响起，“地产泡沫”将导致中国地产走向崩溃的言论，使得关心中国地产人们的目光聚集到一起，有必要认真了解分析一下近年来房地产业的功过得失。     

An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting

There is evidence that risk-taking behavior is influenced by prior monetary gains and losses. When endowed with house money, people become more risk taking. This paper is the first to report a house money effect in a dynamic, financial setting. Using an experimental method, we compare market outcomes across sessions that differ in the level of cash endowment (low and high). Our experimental results provide support for a house money effect. Traders’ bids, price predictions, and market prices are influenced by the amount of money that is provided prior to trading. However, dynamic behavior is difficult to interpret due to conflicting influences. JEL Classification C91 · C92 · D80 The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System.     

租购并举、货币政策与房地产市场波动

为补足房地产市场发展短板,有效解决房地产市场结构性失衡,我国提出加快建立租购并举的住房制度,健全住房租赁市场,满足居民居住需求。本文通过构建一般均衡模型,分析住房租赁市场发展对宏观经济的影响,并采用1998~2010年全国30个大中城市季度数据分析在房地产市场化改革前期房地产市场结构失衡对宏观经济的影响,采用2002~2019年全国月度数据分析实施租购并举住房制度后房地产市场结构改善情况下,宏观经济变化以及货币政策对房地产市场的调节效应。研究结果表明:第一,房地产市场化改革前期,住房以"居住"属性为主,"投资"属性相对较弱;第二,租购并举制度下房租房价之间"剪刀差"的缩小能够有效改善房地产市场失衡的状况;第三,货币政策对房地产市场具有显著影响,但不同的货币政策会产生截然相反的作用。     

财政压力、土地财政与区域房价的时空演化--基于GTWR模型的实证研究

通过分析财政压力与土地财政对区域房价的影响机理,来构建三者之间的关系模型,同时考虑到财政压力与土地财政对区域房价的影响存在时空异质性,采用GTWR模型对模型参数进行估计,研究了财政压力、土地财政对房价的直接效应与间接效应,并对其时空异质特征进行了实证研究。结果显示:财政压力、土地财政对房价整体上具有正向直接效应;财政压力通过土地财政对区域房价起到正向的间接效应;财政压力和土地财政及两者互动对房价的影响效应存在较大的时空差异,其中东部地区和中部地区由于较高的土地财政依赖而以间接效应为主,而西部地区则以财政压力对房价的直接效应为主。最后,提出相应的政策建议。     

School Quality, House Prices and Liquidity

This paper develops an empirical framework for taking into account the effects of endogenous liquidity on price capitalization estimates. Changes in school attendance zones in the East Baton Rouge Parish public school district provide a natural experiment for studying how changes in school characteristics affect house prices and liquidity. House price and selling time, or liquidity, are simultaneously determined in search markets. The empirical model exploits variation in the surrounding neighborhood market conditions pertinent to each house to identify the system of price and liquidity equations. The estimates are consistent with search-market theory in that liquidity absorbs part of the capitalization of school quality.

List price signaling and buyer behavior in the housing market

To determine whether list price contains useful information for anticipating trends in eventual transactions prices, we develop a model of buyer behavior from a search-theoretic perspective. Using data from the Baton Rouge, Louisiana, housing market between 1985 and 1992, we estimate separate price indexes with list price and selling price as the respective dependent variables in the hedonic regressions. Consistent with our theory, we find that the list price may lead the market when functioning as a signal of seller intent, but list price will probably lag a market driven by buyer willingness to purchase. Granger causality tests conducted on quarterly data for the eight-year study support listing price as a leading indicator of selling price. However, an examination of the indexes around the period of market reversal suggest otherwise. Indeed, listing prices appear to contain the least useful information at the times when information would be most valuable: at the peaks and troughs of the market cycle.     

近代日本老工业城市发展过程中"社宅街"的形成、演变及改良

"棚户区"改造是我国老工业城市更新改造的难点和重点。近代日本在矿工业快速发展的过程中也面临类似的问题,即"社宅问题"。日本的"社宅"发展在不同历史时期内表现出不同的形态特征和具体问题。日本政府为解决这些问题出台过多项政策,并开展了相应的工程实践。文章介绍了日本"社宅"产生的时代背景、各历史时期的具体特征和改良政策,分析论述了1970年代末期开始的"小规模矿区居住区改良工程"的实施办法,提出了日本"社宅"改造对于我国的借鉴意义。